Testy Tuesday – S&P 3,600 But Once more

This can be a strong-looking chart:  

The S&P 500 is clearly consolidating ABOVE the three,600 line at this level and, if we maintain it into the tip of the 12 months, that can bode very properly for subsequent 12 months.  Nonetheless, we’re nonetheless shorting the S&P (/ES) Futures in the event that they dip again under the three,600 line (now 3,602) with tight stops above just because it is a very optimistic threat/reward play as we are able to cease out at, for instance, 3,602.50 with a $125 loss however, simply yesterday, /ES was down at 3,550, which might have been a $2,500 acquire.  When you may win $2,500 and threat $125, you solely should be proper every now and then to do very properly.

Sure there may be going to be a vaccine, I might say by Could, issues needs to be getting again to regular however they don’t seem to be regular now they usually will not be regular for Christmas so I actually do not see how This fall GDP will probably be any good and Q1 not so nice both.  So it is one other sub-par 12 months for the primary half, at the least and, even when there may be not a coup, Biden is not going to be more likely to run up $6Tn in debt – as Trump did this 12 months.  Biden can be very more likely to increase taxes on the rich (over $400,000 in revenue) and rich Companies – does not that impression their bottom-line earnings?   

Biden is more likely to transfer us in direction of a stronger Greenback and that too, is just not nice for shares and Biden needs stronger wages – not good for the underside line.  That is why Chipotle (CMG) is one in all my favourite shorts – increased wages hit them onerous, as will actuality if it ever rears its ugly head and notices that CMG is buying and selling at over 150 TIMES their annual earnings.  

$1,300 per share is a $36Bn valuation for a corporation whose finest 12 months was a revenue of $475M – and that was again in 2015!  Since then, $22M (once they poisoned their prospects), $176M, $176M and $350M final 12 months.  Even when they get again to $500M ($164M within the first 3 quarters of 2020) – they’d nonetheless be at an insane 72x earnings for a restaurant that’s close to its saturation level.  Labor…

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